[Grovenet] Cost of Obesity

[Allen Warren]

The study you reference is based on a simulation.  The problem is the simulation algorithm needs to be modeled correctly/robustly to factor in all the potential complications, other factors and variables that can occur as a result of years of obesity.  The full text of the study points out definite variables not modeled in the simulations algorithm.  And the researchers, noting the shortcomings in the simulation model parameters, rather casually dismiss them:

As with all mathematical models such as this, the accuracy of these findings depend on how well the model reflects real life and the data fed into it. In this case, the model does not take into account varying degrees of obesity, which are likely to affect lifetime health-care costs, nor indirect costs of obesity such as reduced productivity. Nevertheless, these findings suggest that although effective obesity prevention reduces the costs of obesity-related diseases, this reduction is offset by the increased costs of diseases unrelated to obesity that occur during the extra years of life gained by slimming down

The study's conclusions are informative & seem to wrap the study up neatly but are not accurate.

Allen Warren

----- Original Message ----
From: Steven <NoSpam03 at comcast.net>
To: Forest Grove local interests list <grovenet at rdrop.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 4:08:25 PM
Subject: Re: [Grovenet] Policing in the Grove + Cost of Obesity

You can disagree all you want.
From: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18711498
There are a lot of good reasons for people to lose weight and stop smoking -
but saving money on lifetime health care costs isn't one of them, according
to a study out of the Netherlands.

The researchers found that healthy people cost governments more in the long
run because they live years longer: an average of 4.5 years longer than
people who are obese, and seven years longer than smokers.

Economist Pieter van Baal, who led the study for the Dutch National
Institute for Public Health and the Environment, talks with Melissa Block
about the counter-intuitive idea that a healthy lifestyle costs more in
terms of health care.

Van Baal's study, "Lifetime Medical Costs of Obesity: Prevention No Cure for
Increasing Health Expenditure," was published Monday in the online journal
Public Library of Science-Medicine.
----
http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371/
journal.pmed.0050029

Background

Obesity is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is associated with
high medical expenditures. It has been suggested that obesity prevention
could result in cost savings. The objective of this study was to estimate
the annual and lifetime medical costs attributable to obesity, to compare
those to similar costs attributable to smoking, and to discuss the
implications for prevention.

Methods and Findings

With a simulation model, lifetime health-care costs were estimated for a
cohort of obese people aged 20 y at baseline. To assess the impact of
obesity, comparisons were made with similar cohorts of smokers and
"healthy-living" persons (defined as nonsmokers with a body mass index
between 18.5 and 25). Except for relative risk values, all input parameters
of the simulation model were based on data from The Netherlands. In
sensitivity analyses the effects of epidemiologic parameters and cost
definitions were assessed. Until age 56 y, annual health expenditure was
highest for obese people. At older ages, smokers incurred higher costs.
Because of differences in life expectancy, however, lifetime health
expenditure was highest among healthy-living people and lowest for smokers.
Obese individuals held an intermediate position. Alternative values of
epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions did not alter these
conclusions.

Conclusions

Although effective obesity prevention leads to a decrease in costs of
obesity-related diseases, this decrease is offset by cost increases due to
diseases unrelated to obesity in life-years gained. Obesity prevention may
be an important and cost-effective way of improving public health, but it is
not a cure for increasing health expenditures.
---
That is why I made the comment. I do have to agree that my observation of
traffic stops in forest grove is only as antidotal as your opinion stated
here.


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