[Oeva-list] EV charging considerations.

Sam Huffman shuffman at gmail.com
Mon Jul 26 18:19:27 PDT 2010


The math below is faulty; you are confusing "trips" with "miles". Even
assuming the quoted 'trip percentage' is correct (which sounds optimistic to
me), bear in mind that 20% of trips are long trips (more miles), and 80% are
short trips (fewer miles).

In other words, the 80% of trips suitable for an EV include the 5-mile drive
to starbucks, or the 10-mile drive to work. The 20% of trips that are
appropriate for an ICE are the 400 mile roundtrip to Seattle, or the 2000
mile roundtrip to San Francisco.

So the overall drop in ICE miles will still be small, even if more trips
occur with the EV.


sam

On Sun, Jul 25, 2010 at 2:33 PM, Richard Hamje <richard at hamje.net> wrote:

>  In my opinion, EV's will only displace a small number of ICE miles... and
> probably very few ICE "units" because it's likely that families will
> have"one of each".
>
> I don't disagree that many families will have one of each.  However, the EV
> would be the preferred car for all but long commutes or road trips because
> it is so much cheaper to operate.  So while the units displacement may be
> small, the miles displaced is likely to be disproportionately larger.
>
> The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports that 78% of Americans drive
> less than 20 miles one-way per weekday, 51% less than 10 miles.  The average
> total miles driven is now about 10,000 (has been declining recently), or
> about 27.4 miles per day which works out to 137 miles per workweek assuming
> a similar amount of driving on weekends.  This works out to a 13.7 mile
> one-way trip per weekday which is consistent with the first statistics.  All
> of this driving is easily done with an EV.
>
> Without the detailed trip data, it's not possible to tell what percentage
> of all trips would be outside the range of an EV, but guessing from the
> above numbers it might be around 20%.
>
> So, if the EV is the preferred vehicle in the driveway, and if 80% of all
> trips can be done with the EV, we'd expect to see ICE-driven mileage drop by
> a huge amount - from around 10,000 miles per year to perhaps 2,000.  Best of
> all, the short trips being displaced are the least efficient for an IC and
> most efficient for an EV.
>
> So what if you drive the ICE car on a few road trips every year?  This is
> the best and most efficient use for an ICE - and the money required to build
> and charge EVs for this purpose could probably be better used elsewhere in
> the energy infrastructure (home solar charging?).  No vehicle (ICE or EV) is
> perfect for every purpose.  You wouldn't plow fields with a minivan or
> commute on a farm tractor.   My personal belief is that "range anxiety" is
> an artifice being promoted by powerful organizations with a big stake in the
> ICE world.
>
> IMHO,
> Richard
>
>
> Richard Hamje
> 822 SE 45th Avenue
> Portland, OR  97215
> 503-805-8829
> richard at hamje.net
>
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>
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