[Oeva-list] Update on HB2328

Theoldcars at aol.com Theoldcars at aol.com
Thu May 5 23:59:36 PDT 2011


Hello Scott
 
I could not agree with you more and as you point out I have seen what your  
talking about all the time. It is a challenge trying to explain an EV in 
five or  ten minutes. The vast majority of people are absolutely clueless 
about  electric vehicles. Many now think of Hybrids as an electric vehicle.  
That battery powered electric vehicles only have the capability of an NEV  or a 
golf cart. It was easier before hybrids became common to explain  EVs to 
ICE drivers. I think it was better before because they did not feel they  knew 
anything. Now you have to retrain what they believe to be true is wrong. It 
 does not help when even the writers in ICE car magazines are mistaken as  
well. Like plugging in a cell phone to charge in your Leaf is going to 
affect  your range. I could not believe that Car and Driver would print such lame 
 information.
 
Your point that the public thinks EVs are worthless when the pack  needs 
replacement is valid. As all they have to compare to is an ICE vehicle  value 
after 10 or 15 years which is just a bit more then scrape metal.  I see this 
happening daily at mechanical shops. The customer is told the  labor and 
cost of a short block or used motor and it is  beyond what they are willing to 
invest back into the  vehicle.  For the price of the repair bill many times 
they can  buy a newer vehicle with about half the miles. 
 
An ICE vehicle regardless of how well it is built has  always been a throw 
away car. You don't see many cars over 15 years old  still on the road. I 
think it is going to be a learning curve for ICE owners to  understand the 
changing economics of car maintenance with an EV. I understand  your trying to 
use the batteries as fuel to get to help them  comprehend the overall cost 
of an EV but I disagree this is the correct  method. As Gary pointed out 
batteries are far better then they were and  improvements are coming fast. 
 
In some respects I don't see the end of drivers looking for new or  newer 
vehicles. Being in the business I see it everyday how wear and tear  takes it 
toll over the years on vehicles used daily. Dents and dings from  parking 
lots start making the vehicle look beat up. Then locks start  failing, 
windows stop working, Door latches and wiper motors fail. I could go on  and on 
but the point is people get tired of what seems like a never  ending list of 
vehicle repairs. Most vehicles by this point are no longer  looking good 
inside or outside . When the motor or transmission fails  that is many times the 
last straw. 
 
There actually might come a day when you go to a new car dealership  to buy 
a glider. A glider is a vehicle that is bought without a motor or  
transmission. Solectria did this building about 400 or 500 new electric  vehicles 
from GM. If you have an EV that the body and interior is worn out you  just 
then need another glider. You will use your old AC drive system because  there 
is nothing wrong with it and its still good for another 700,000 miles.  
Gary is correct about the cycle life of A123 batteries. They are so well built  
if you size a pack correctly for range it is unlikely your going to use up 
their  cycle life. The concern then is will you be able to put on enough 
miles before  calendar life becomes a major factor. I would not be surprised if 
taken  care of A123 calendar life could be 15 or 20 years. 
 
So someday when you go to the dealership you might look at their  motor and 
controller options. You may also consider the latest  technology in 
batteries. Then you might decide to be thrifty  and keep your current pack and 
drive motor replacing  only the body. The dealership would offer to do this or 
you could go  to an EV service shop. 
 
It might seem like this is far in the future. However if you are older your 
 not going to surprised how quickly things can change. Twenty five years 
ago  hardly a home in the United States had a computer. Cell phones were new, 
large,  and very costly per minute and very few had one. The younger  
generation having grown up with CDs, DVD's, cell phones and  computers take them 
for granted because they have always been  there. I believe it will not be 
long before EVs become as common as cell  phones or computers are today. 
Technology is rapidly changing our world we  know which includes vehicles. 
 
As much as some people scoff at EV's and would like to hang on to  what is 
commonly used for fuel today. It would not be in our best interest  to delay 
the replacement any longer then necessary. More then ever we need  to get 
away from our dependency of oil as quickly as possible. 
 
Don
 
 
In a message dated 5/5/2011 9:55:18 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,  
oeva-list-request at oeva.org writes:

From:  Scott Hippe <scott.hippe at me.com>
To: oeva-list at oeva.org
Sent: Wed,  May 4, 2011 11:57:53 PM
Subject: Re: [Oeva-list] Update on  HB2328


I agree with all those things you say and to me it  reinforces the need to 
think 
of the battery pack as fuel.? This could be  a
good discussion for future meetings.? I would like to hear all  opinions.

One of the things non-EV people seem to fear (based on what  they say) is 
that 
they seem to assume that an EV is worthless
when the  battery pack reaches 'end of life'.? They fear this 'big expense' 
to 
occur  some time in the future.? And they equate it
to their experience of having  a high mileage ICE car and the transmission 
goes 
out.? Then their car  becomes 'worthless' and they have
to decide whether to sell it for scrap,  or dump in more money to fix the 
the 
transmission and perhaps risk  something else
going out. I am sure many people reading this have faced  this sometime in 
their 
lives.

But with my thinking, if the pack is  thought of as fuel, then you are not 
dumping money into this car to  replace some broken part,
but simply pre-buying more fuel.? Evaluating the  used EV is easier than 
the used 
ICE because, yes, we expect millions of  miles on an
electric motor and there are so few parts in the drive train  that could 
fail and 
escape your attention.? So if the body is in good  shape and the interior 
is not 
ripped, one would be happy to buy a new  pack, because that money is 
pre-buying 
fuel for the next
100,000 miles  or more. If I were to buy a used EV, the best time to buy 
would be 
right  at the end of life of the pack, or
right after the pack was swapped with a  new one.? In both cases, you can 
accurately value this purchase.? It would  be harder to
value a used EV with 50,000 miles on the pack, because you may  have no 
idea how 
the previous owner drove and treated the pack
(i.e.  wasted fuel).

The other reason I think of the pack as fuel is because  then the current 
cost of 
an EV actually becomes competitive with an  ICE
car without any incentives.? A $25,000 ICE can be compared with a  $35,000 
EV 
because of the prepaid fuel concept.? At the time
of  purchase, most people never consider that they are going to spend 
$12,000 or  
more on gasoline over the next 100,000 miles.

Perhaps we should not  get hung up on the meaning of fuel, my purpose is 
simply 
to create an  analogy that makes it easier to have a common ground to 
evaluate 
the  economics between an ICE or EV purchase.? Once we get someone  
understanding
true costs, then we can talk about other interesting topics  like how much 
electricity was consumed fueling their ICE car and  other
social costs.


Scott





On May 4, 2011,  at 10:57 PM, Theoldcars at aol.com wrote:

> Hello Scott
>?  
> I disagree about including the batteries as part of the fuel cost for  
these 
>reasons.
>? 
> One an ICE motor or transmission can  fail at 100,000 or 150,000. I have 
had to 
>replace transmissions at  50,000 miles and even one motor. This is out of 
small 
>fleet of ICE  vehicles and they always seem to last at least until the 
warranty 
>is  up.
>? 
> An EV AC traction motor is good for about one million  miles. The gear 
reduction 
>is a sealed unit and will not fail for a  very long time. So the EV drive 
would 
>save you the cost of replacing  motors at 200,000 miles.
>? 
> Yes the replacement cost of the  pack is expensive but it is about the 
cost of 
>the 5 engines you don't  have to buy for one million EV miles. Even after 
one 
>million miles  your only service work would be to replace two bearings. 
This 
>would be  far less costly then any ICE rebuild. Even if you had to replace 
the  
>whole AC drive and gear reduction unit the cost would be a bargain  
compared to 
>an ICE motor. As an example the drive pod for an S-10 EV  which includes 
the 
>motor was brand new in the box 1500 dollars list  price from GM. They sold 
out 
>several years ago.? I suspect a few EV  guys figured out what a bargain 
that was 
>for an EV project.
>?  
> Also I would not be surprised if the batteries last 150,000 to  200,000 
miles if 
>not abused. They would be useable for even longer if  you can get by with 
less 
>range. Right now I am driving an S-10 with 12  year old NiMH batteries. 
Range is 
>about 50 miles but they just refuse  to die as long as you treat them 
kindly. The 
>RAV4 EV under the right  conditions using the same chemistry is good for 
150,000 
>miles. The  Leaf should far exceed the cycle life of these older NiMH 
modules.
>?  
> I do agree that pack costs will come down. Also it is most likely  that 
by the 
>time a replacement pack is needed battery technology is  going to be 
greatly 
>improved.
>? 
> Not sure if this  changes your point of view but some things you might 
consider.
>?  
> Don
>? 
> In a message dated 5/4/2011 6:30:50 A.M.  Pacific Daylight Time, 
>oeva-list-request at oeva.org writes:
>  Message: 3
> Date: Wed, 04 May 2011 06:26:50 -0700
> From: Scott  Hippe <scott.hippe at me.com>
> Subject: [Oeva-list] Fwd:? Update on  HB2328
> To: oeva-list at oeva.org
> Message-ID:  <A25ED67A-A467-4BBB-A19C-C4CC6256A449 at me.com>
> Content-Type:  text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
> 
> 
> In my opinion, EV  fuel is the battery + electricity.? The battery is 
"prepaid 
>fuel".?  For a Leaf, if you assume battery cost is $10,000.00 and you 
expect
>  100,000 miles on a battery, your total fuel cost over 100,000 miles is  
>$10,000.00 + $2,000 (electricity).? That works out to $.12/mile.? If  you 
treat
> your battery well, and your battery lasts more than 100,000  miles, well 
thats 
>just an additional benefit.? We also assume that  when it is time to
> replace the battery (essentially prepay more fuel),  the battery cost 
will be 
>much lower due to technology and mass  production.
> 
> To compare an ICE, 30 mpg * $4.00/gallon =  $.12/mile as well.? But it is 
easy 
>to assume that over the next 8  years that the price of gas will increase.
> Also there are all kinds of  social costs produced by the ICE during the 
100,000 
>miles that are not  accounted for.? And the 3333 gallons of gas that the
> ICE uses over  100,000 miles required a significant amount of electricity 
to 
>produce  and deliver which is of course also hidden from view.
> 
>  
> Scott

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