[Oeva-list] Fwd: gliders

Scott Hippe scott.hippe at me.com
Fri May 6 12:48:37 PDT 2011


It might even be practical to produce an EV glider that has the motor but is only missing the pack.  For fleets, one might
purchase many gliders and capitalize that purchase, then buy the packs separately and expense those or take a section
179 accelerated depreciation.  Beyond the financial implications to the corporation of this strategy, the fleet could
then select a pack that might be more suitable for their type of heavy duty or light duty usage.  They may favor the 
characteristics of lithium iron phosphate over lithium manganese dioxide or any of the other lithium ion configurations.  I suspect
zinc air, fuel cells and many other options will be available within the next 10 years.  One automaker could not afford to offer
all the different energy technologies, so many different energy suppliers will appear.  Just like computers, there was a time
when you got all or nothing from one vendor.  Then people went to the other extreme and bought cases, motherboards, and disk drives
separately and built their own computers.  Now we generally buy one of the major brands, but still may buy monitors from
another and perhaps RAM and disk storage from another if there is a big cost savings.  For sure, we usually buy software from
different companies than our computer supplier.

This is another reason why I like to think of the battery ( or energy supply system ) separately from the car, because in the
future, all cars may have an electric drivetrain.  But there should be a vast array of energy supply systems from pure electric
to hybrid to meet any requirement.


Scott



Begin forwarded message:

> From: Theoldcars at aol.com
> Date: May 5, 2011 11:59:36 PM PDT
> To: oeva-list at oeva.org
> Subject: [Oeva-list] Update on HB2328
> 
> Hello Scott
>  
> I could not agree with you more and as you point out I have seen what your talking about all the time. It is a challenge trying to explain an EV in five or ten minutes. The vast majority of people are absolutely clueless about electric vehicles. Many now think of Hybrids as an electric vehicle. That battery powered electric vehicles only have the capability of an NEV or a golf cart. It was easier before hybrids became common to explain EVs to ICE drivers. I think it was better before because they did not feel they knew anything. Now you have to retrain what they believe to be true is wrong. It does not help when even the writers in ICE car magazines are mistaken as well. Like plugging in a cell phone to charge in your Leaf is going to affect your range. I could not believe that Car and Driver would print such lame information.
>  
> Your point that the public thinks EVs are worthless when the pack needs replacement is valid. As all they have to compare to is an ICE vehicle value after 10 or 15 years which is just a bit more then scrape metal. I see this happening daily at mechanical shops. The customer is told the labor and cost of a short block or used motor and it is beyond what they are willing to invest back into the vehicle.  For the price of the repair bill many times they can buy a newer vehicle with about half the miles.
>  
> An ICE vehicle regardless of how well it is built has always been a throw away car. You don't see many cars over 15 years old still on the road. I think it is going to be a learning curve for ICE owners to understand the changing economics of car maintenance with an EV. I understand your trying to use the batteries as fuel to get to help them comprehend the overall cost of an EV but I disagree this is the correct method. As Gary pointed out batteries are far better then they were and improvements are coming fast.
>  
> In some respects I don't see the end of drivers looking for new or newer vehicles. Being in the business I see it everyday how wear and tear takes it toll over the years on vehicles used daily. Dents and dings from parking lots start making the vehicle look beat up. Then locks start failing, windows stop working, Door latches and wiper motors fail. I could go on and on but the point is people get tired of what seems like a never ending list of vehicle repairs. Most vehicles by this point are no longer looking good inside or outside . When the motor or transmission fails that is many times the last straw.
>  
> There actually might come a day when you go to a new car dealership to buy a glider. A glider is a vehicle that is bought without a motor or transmission. Solectria did this building about 400 or 500 new electric vehicles from GM. If you have an EV that the body and interior is worn out you just then need another glider. You will use your old AC drive system because there is nothing wrong with it and its still good for another 700,000 miles. Gary is correct about the cycle life of A123 batteries. They are so well built if you size a pack correctly for range it is unlikely your going to use up their cycle life. The concern then is will you be able to put on enough miles before calendar life becomes a major factor. I would not be surprised if taken care of A123 calendar life could be 15 or 20 years.
>  
> So someday when you go to the dealership you might look at their motor and controller options. You may also consider the latest technology in batteries. Then you might decide to be thrifty and keep your current pack and drive motor replacing only the body. The dealership would offer to do this or you could go to an EV service shop.
>  
> It might seem like this is far in the future. However if you are older your not going to surprised how quickly things can change. Twenty five years ago hardly a home in the United States had a computer. Cell phones were new, large, and very costly per minute and very few had one. The younger generation having grown up with CDs, DVD's, cell phones and computers take them for granted because they have always been there. I believe it will not be long before EVs become as common as cell phones or computers are today. Technology is rapidly changing our world we know which includes vehicles. 
>  
> As much as some people scoff at EV's and would like to hang on to what is commonly used for fuel today. It would not be in our best interest to delay the replacement any longer then necessary. More then ever we need to get away from our dependency of oil as quickly as possible.
>  
> Don
>  
> In a message dated 5/5/2011 9:55:18 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, oeva-list-request at oeva.org writes:
> From: Scott Hippe <scott.hippe at me.com>
> To: oeva-list at oeva.org
> Sent: Wed, May 4, 2011 11:57:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [Oeva-list] Update on HB2328
> 
> 
> I agree with all those things you say and to me it reinforces the need to think 
> of the battery pack as fuel.? This could be a
> good discussion for future meetings.? I would like to hear all opinions.
> 
> One of the things non-EV people seem to fear (based on what they say) is that 
> they seem to assume that an EV is worthless
> when the battery pack reaches 'end of life'.? They fear this 'big expense' to 
> occur some time in the future.? And they equate it
> to their experience of having a high mileage ICE car and the transmission goes 
> out.? Then their car becomes 'worthless' and they have
> to decide whether to sell it for scrap, or dump in more money to fix the the 
> transmission and perhaps risk something else
> going out. I am sure many people reading this have faced this sometime in their 
> lives.
> 
> But with my thinking, if the pack is thought of as fuel, then you are not 
> dumping money into this car to replace some broken part,
> but simply pre-buying more fuel.? Evaluating the used EV is easier than the used 
> ICE because, yes, we expect millions of miles on an
> electric motor and there are so few parts in the drive train that could fail and 
> escape your attention.? So if the body is in good shape and the interior is not 
> ripped, one would be happy to buy a new pack, because that money is pre-buying 
> fuel for the next
> 100,000 miles or more. If I were to buy a used EV, the best time to buy would be 
> right at the end of life of the pack, or
> right after the pack was swapped with a new one.? In both cases, you can 
> accurately value this purchase.? It would be harder to
> value a used EV with 50,000 miles on the pack, because you may have no idea how 
> the previous owner drove and treated the pack
> (i.e. wasted fuel).
> 
> The other reason I think of the pack as fuel is because then the current cost of 
> an EV actually becomes competitive with an ICE
> car without any incentives.? A $25,000 ICE can be compared with a $35,000 EV 
> because of the prepaid fuel concept.? At the time
> of purchase, most people never consider that they are going to spend $12,000 or 
> more on gasoline over the next 100,000 miles.
> 
> Perhaps we should not get hung up on the meaning of fuel, my purpose is simply 
> to create an analogy that makes it easier to have a common ground to evaluate 
> the economics between an ICE or EV purchase.? Once we get someone understanding
> true costs, then we can talk about other interesting topics like how much 
> electricity was consumed fueling their ICE car and other
> social costs.
> 
> 
> Scott
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On May 4, 2011, at 10:57 PM, Theoldcars at aol.com wrote:
> 
> > Hello Scott
> >? 
> > I disagree about including the batteries as part of the fuel cost for these 
> >reasons.
> >? 
> > One an ICE motor or transmission can fail at 100,000 or 150,000. I have had to 
> >replace transmissions at 50,000 miles and even one motor. This is out of small 
> >fleet of ICE vehicles and they always seem to last at least until the warranty 
> >is up.
> >? 
> > An EV AC traction motor is good for about one million miles. The gear reduction 
> >is a sealed unit and will not fail for a very long time. So the EV drive would 
> >save you the cost of replacing motors at 200,000 miles.
> >? 
> > Yes the replacement cost of the pack is expensive but it is about the cost of 
> >the 5 engines you don't have to buy for one million EV miles. Even after one 
> >million miles your only service work would be to replace two bearings. This 
> >would be far less costly then any ICE rebuild. Even if you had to replace the 
> >whole AC drive and gear reduction unit the cost would be a bargain compared to 
> >an ICE motor. As an example the drive pod for an S-10 EV which includes the 
> >motor was brand new in the box 1500 dollars list price from GM. They sold out 
> >several years ago.? I suspect a few EV guys figured out what a bargain that was 
> >for an EV project.
> >? 
> > Also I would not be surprised if the batteries last 150,000 to 200,000 miles if 
> >not abused. They would be useable for even longer if you can get by with less 
> >range. Right now I am driving an S-10 with 12 year old NiMH batteries. Range is 
> >about 50 miles but they just refuse to die as long as you treat them kindly. The 
> >RAV4 EV under the right conditions using the same chemistry is good for 150,000 
> >miles. The Leaf should far exceed the cycle life of these older NiMH modules.
> >? 
> > I do agree that pack costs will come down. Also it is most likely that by the 
> >time a replacement pack is needed battery technology is going to be greatly 
> >improved.
> >? 
> > Not sure if this changes your point of view but some things you might 
> consider.
> >? 
> > Don
> >? 
> > In a message dated 5/4/2011 6:30:50 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, 
> >oeva-list-request at oeva.org writes:
> > Message: 3
> > Date: Wed, 04 May 2011 06:26:50 -0700
> > From: Scott Hippe <scott.hippe at me.com>
> > Subject: [Oeva-list] Fwd:? Update on HB2328
> > To: oeva-list at oeva.org
> > Message-ID: <A25ED67A-A467-4BBB-A19C-C4CC6256A449 at me.com>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
> > 
> > 
> > In my opinion, EV fuel is the battery + electricity.? The battery is "prepaid 
> >fuel".? For a Leaf, if you assume battery cost is $10,000.00 and you expect
> > 100,000 miles on a battery, your total fuel cost over 100,000 miles is 
> >$10,000.00 + $2,000 (electricity).? That works out to $.12/mile.? If you treat
> > your battery well, and your battery lasts more than 100,000 miles, well thats 
> >just an additional benefit.? We also assume that when it is time to
> > replace the battery (essentially prepay more fuel), the battery cost will be 
> >much lower due to technology and mass production.
> > 
> > To compare an ICE, 30 mpg * $4.00/gallon = $.12/mile as well.? But it is easy 
> >to assume that over the next 8 years that the price of gas will increase.
> > Also there are all kinds of social costs produced by the ICE during the 100,000 
> >miles that are not accounted for.? And the 3333 gallons of gas that the
> > ICE uses over 100,000 miles required a significant amount of electricity to 
> >produce and deliver which is of course also hidden from view.
> > 
> > 
> > Scott
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