[Oeva-list] Zehner's article.

Steve's Account stevel at fern.com
Wed Jul 31 13:02:56 PDT 2013


> From: Aaron Burt <aaron at bavariati.org>
> Subject: Re: [Oeva-list] Mr. Zehner's article
> To: oeva-list at oeva.org
> Message-ID: <20130731180153.GA23110 at aaron-acer>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
>
> On Tue, Jul 30, 2013 at 05:31:27PM +0000, CraigSchaefer wrote:
>> I wonder what could have come from making the same investment in hydrogen
>> or LNG infrastructure as made in electric infrastructure for fueling
>> vehicles?
>
> Off-the-cuff answer?  Very little.
> Consider the cost of NG liquefaction compressors alone, vs. L2 chargers,
> and also the rural availability of electricity vs. NG lines.

NG liqufaction costs you absolutely nothing.. You just get it from the
LNG tanker in liquid form.. There's lots of LNG on the market already.

Both Trinidad and a couple of the Gulf states have LNG trains already
set up and running. And in both cases, it was gas they were flaring
because there was no market for it, until they started liquifying
it.. It's a win/win because the gas is used for some useful purpose
instead of lighting up the desert!
>
> I won't even go into the logistics of H2.  We've been throwing money at
> that since at least the EV1 days, and look where we're at.  H2/FCEV had the
> potential to supplant Pb and Ni batteries, but now we got Li (and H2
> molecules are tiny, hard to store, and flammable when they escape.)

H2 is easy.. you do what the Icelanders are already doing, you install
"reverse fuel cells" to electrolize water into hydrogen and oxygen.
Use solar cells to do it. Perfect application for solar cells in
that every electron generated dissasocates a hydrogen. It doesn't
matter what the insolation is at a given time.. if it's not sunny,
the process runs slowly.. And.. if it's dark, you just use utility
power to generate more hydrogen, if you are already out.
>
> My scooter club list doesn't have people complaining about 2-strokes,
> my motorcycle club list doesn't have people saying we should stop riding,
> but my EV club list has people telling me EVs are wrong and bad.
>
> What's up with that?
>  Aaron

EV's arn't "bad" they just arn't the solution that people would like
them to be.. including me!
>
AND

>
> Steve,
>
> If one believes in the statistics put forth by the US Department of
> Transportation, the average American drives less than 40 miles a day.

And a large fraction of the people in the US live in CITIES.. where they
don't need transportation.. It's another case where you use selective
statistics to bolster a "use case".
>
> That, together with the fact that most American households have more
> that one car, means that the range of the present generation of EVs
> meets the needs of most consumers (the mass market).

If they did, the sales of EV's would be "thru the roof" for all the
obvious reasons.
>
> Your driving situation clearly puts you well outside of the norm.

I bet, if you take the "average driver" based on the one that drives
the average number of miles, instead of picking the ones that live
in densely populated areas, the number changes dramatically.

Sure.. if you pick "individuals" and not "miles" you can make
the statistics look good.. what you want to do is get the 
maximum number of miles replaced by EV's if you want to impact
polution.

Cities already have solutions in place, in the form of mass transit.

So.. looking at it from that point of view, you are displacing potential
transit riders by producing EV's! :-) There is a lose/lose solution!.. 
The bus is already running up and down your street, spewing diesel
fumes.. and it's empty, 'cus the potential riders are in their EV's! 
Or more likely at the Starbucks, waiting for their EV to charge!
:-)

>
> In other words, you represent a niche market that the present day EV
> (Tesla excluded) is not designed to meet.

And the Tesla excludes itself because it's like buying a Lamborghini.. the
price is a "novelty item" not a "transportation solution".
>
> For most Americans those windmills exist only in their minds and remain
> there simply because of normal resistance to change.

I don't think so.. and the sales figures back that up.

The existing EV fleet is a "solution" to a problem that doesn't exist.
>
> Gary M

As an exmple.. let's take the 4th largest city in the US. Houston..

The climate is such that AC is necessary for most of the year. In
the summer it's too hot to drive a car without AC. And for a good
part of the winter, you can't see out the windows because of the
condensation on them without AC.

The area inside the "inner" loop freeway is over 100 square miles.

The area inside the "outer" loop is  480 sqare miles.


Bedroom communities extend to the north, south and west
about another 20-50 miles.

Solve their commuter problem and you will have really
succeeded.

It's a perfect application.. power is relatively cheap,
The terrain is pretty flat.

And in doing so you will have put a dent in the fuel
consumption/polution problem.


Solving the problem for folks who don't burn any fuel
in the first place isn't doing anything "useful".

Displacing one "subcompact" car in favor of an EV isn't
a big help.

The argument that most families have 2 cars just prooves
that the EV isn't what it needs to be, yet. Now.. I
admit.. it's a help... but that family is going to
do their "serious fuel consumption" not in the
EV, but in the ICE.

If I could buy a Gizmo that was a single place
vehicle with the needed range, I'd do it.. I've got
a car in the driveway right now that I'd trade in.

But.. I can't get one.. I keep looking.. and will
keep looking.. because I want the technology to
work..

It's curious that the hybrid, which should be
the "worst of both worlds" is actually winning
in the market place. The hybrid hauls around a
battery system, a generator and an ICE.. and a
fuel tank.. and get's some of the best mileage
figures going.

Cherry picking statistics doesn't help either..
because when a credible person like Zehner publishes an
article.. if the immediate response is "rebut at any
cost" including "the truth".. there is something
fishy going on. When Zehner has "nothing to say"
because your statistics are actually BETTER than
the competition.. then you have achived something really
groundbreaking.

I'm glad to see Zehners report.. and I'm glad it was
brought up here. Even if it was in the context of
"rebut at any cost".

I missed the original broadcast.. so I was glad to hear
about it.. and go listen to what he had to say. We should
all be open to that discussion.

Steve



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