[Oeva-list] Mr. Zehner's article.

Peter Hoeckel peter at hoeckel.com
Wed Jul 31 16:48:24 PDT 2013


Not sure we'll get there (600 miles on a tank that you can refill in 3 minutes); and I don't know that we need to.  Let's account for the externalities in gasoline (pay for national security, health impact in gas taxes), and we'll see how many people think that saving money most of the time justifies driving an EV (and renting/zipcar/etc. a car twice a year).

 

Peter

 

From: Andy McConnell [mailto:andy.mcconnell at gmail.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2013 12:24 PM
To: Peter Hoeckel
Cc: Steve's Account; Oeva-list at oeva.org
Subject: Re: [Oeva-list] Mr. Zehner's article.

 

You have a good point on the "fit" argument. 

 

The path to adoption of EVs is not by replacing existing vehicles with only those models that happen to have EV drives.  

The path is to provide a comparable model to what the market wants with an EV drive in it.  

When buyers see two models of the same vehicle type, then a fair comparison of EV vs ICE can happen, and EV drives will win.

 





-Andy

 

On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 12:08 PM, Peter Hoeckel <peter at hoeckel.com> wrote:

Last 3200 miles: 5 miles per kWh; with radio and light (where needed); conservative driving, yes, but I can get 0.3kWh/mile in my sleep, any day.

 

2 years, 26,000 miles; subtract all the miles that any 'sane' person would have used the ICE for, and I still have easily 24,000 miles that did not require ANY detours or waiting for charging; and I'm not using the chargers at work.  BTW, for some of us, this argument is irrelevant - we're not trying to prove that the EV can do everything your ICE can do.  

 

Nobody's saying that today's EVs can/will/should replace every ICE out there.  Nobody's claiming that Ford should stop selling Mustangs because they don't fit your load (3ft X 1.8 ft X 3 ft, 250 lbs) either.  But EVs ARE a great solution that just about every two-car household can use to replace at least ONE of their ICEs with.  Not everywhere in the state/country, not everybody, but until I hear some complaining about Ferraris not fitting your use model and wallet (and should therefore not exist), I'm not buying the "EVs aren't working" argument.

 

For me, personally, it's more important to do what I feel is right (for national security, my kids' health, the climate, etc.) than to confirm every day that I can do everything I could have done if only I had bought a pick-up, or racecar, or motorcycle, or...  Doing what's right is rarely the same as doing what's easy - and I'm not saying that "doing what's right" is the same for everybody.

 

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [Oeva-list] Mr. Zehner's article.
From: "Steve's Account" <stevel at fern.com>
Date: Wed, July 31, 2013 10:48 am
To: oeva-list at oeva.org

> Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 15:36:57 +0000
> From: "Hansen, Chris" <chris.hansen at intel.com>
> Subject: Re: [Oeva-list] Mr. Zehner's article
> To: "oeva-list at oeva.org" <oeva-list at oeva.org>
> Message-ID:
> <53FFEFA1DF8F454481C05633FF9AC57524CAA5F9 at ORSMSX105.amr.corp.intel.com>
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
>
> If you look at the generation side of the EV equation then the article is relatively accurate. 
> Most energy generated today is dirty and based upon fossil fuels. And that energy is being 
> consumed by supposedly clean EVs.
>
> What is not often discussed is the consumption side. There EVs shine compared to ICE vehicles. A 
> common agreed measure of electrical watts in a gallon of gasoline is 34kWhrs. 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent . This means that a good ICE vehicle 
> that gets an average of 30 miles/gallon uses about 1.1Kwhrs to go 1 mile. A typical EV 
> consumes around 0.3 kWhr to go a mile. Allowing 80% loss in grid distribution and 70% in 
> battery conversion still brings EV energy consumption/mile to less than 1/2 the energy 
> consumption of an ICE.

While I agree that it's possible for an EV, on flat ground, using no heat, lights, airconditioning,
etc to transport a human one mile for .3 kwh.. it's a apples and kumquats comparison.. You
can play the radio, turn on the heat, use the lights etc.. in the ICE.. and you can't in the
EV, if you want to get to your destination.

Further, you will pass dozens of refueling points for the ICE, that can accomplish the
refueling process for the ICE in just a few minutes.. With the EV, you will have to plan
most trips around finding a charging station, waiting for the charge, sometimes for extended
periods of time.. and hoping that the ONE charger available at the location you need is
available, and working at the time you need it. You may also have to drive some distance
off your intended route, and leave your car someplace other than your destination in order
to do it.

And in your .3 KWH statement there is no allowance for "off route mileage" to find charging
stations.

Sure, the situation with charging stations is getting better.. and may contine to get better,
unless newer battery technology or on board charging requirements obsolete existing 
charging stations.

I'd wonder, if you do "real world" comparisons, how the effiency stacks up.. including the
off-route miles, and some reasonable value for the time you spend waiting for charging, what
the true cost is?

There are a few.. (and I'm sure they will speak up!) folks who have a charger at home and
a charger at work.. and only drive between home and work... and never use their EV for
real day to day life that find that the EV is a perfect replacement for an ICE. This,
for them is nirvana.

And..I'm very happy for those folks..

But.. they are a vanishingly small part of the "transportation problem".. And until EV's
can effectively displace ICE's for MOST people's transportation needs, they remain a "stunt"
instead of a "solution".

When I joined OEVA, I had real hopes that there was a "solution". I still hope that there is
a solution on the horizon.

Here's what I need.. And I'm sure that my requirements are more typical of most transportation
needs that most Portlanders:

I need to be able to go 100 miles, round trip, without stopping to refuel. I need to be able
to use heat and cooling. I need to transport myself and an object that is 3ft X 1.8 ft X 3 ft
and weighs 250 lbs.. I need to be able to sustain 55 mph for 60 miles, 65 mph for 10 miles,
and 45 mph for the balance of the 100 mile round trip. I need to have a total change in
elevation of about 2000 feet.. 450 of those, in just one mile.

And.. if I could occasionally do an extra 80 miles, that would allow commutes to work with a
grocery trip once or twice a week.

About 3-4 times a month, I get called back in to work.. which means repeating that commute, back
to back, without a charging oppertunity in the middle.

Now.. That won't completely displace an ICE.. for this is just the "routine" commute. If I add
a trip into PDX, that's another 50 miles or so.

The comparisons of "just energy effiency" are a bit meaningless.

(Like comparing an airliner with a sailplane.. and ignoring the fuel for the winch tow that
got the sailplane to altitude in the first place.)

I don't think the "extreme" comparisons "make the case" for EV's.. to the contrary, they
proove that the EV is a niche (and a small niche at that!) product.

If you took the portion of that market that "could" use public transit for about the same
amount of effort, and excluded them, the niche would be even smaller.

If you put a cap on the "real purchase price" of the vehicle at the median price of the
current passenger vehicle fleet, the niche would be even smaller.

Right now, the EV market looks more like the "fisherman who insists on using bamboo fly
rods and 18th century equipment" because he likes it.. rather than a man who has to
put dinner on the table.

I hope the situation changes.. I'd love to ship my gas guzzler to the scrap heap.

I keep watching these technologies, because I believe that, one day, the promise will
become reality.

For those who are the early adopters.. for whom the existing fleet of EV's are a solution,
I salute your efforts..

Vamanos, Sancho Panza! Windmills await!

Steve

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